Calibration
Probability vs Reality
When the model says 60%, does the bet actually win 60% of the time? Below: each point is a decile bucket — perfect calibration sits on the diagonal.
ECE
3.49%
weighted bucket gap · <5% is good
Calibration Slope
1.03
well-calibrated
Avg Confidence
53.0%
aggressive (marginal edges)
Settled Bets
300
Brier 0.2099 · <0.25 beats coin flip
Reliability Diagram
Predicted probability → actual win rate
OverallOVERsUNDERs
Bets per bucket
18
35
31
35
49
65
49
15
3