Calibrated. Tracked. Transparent.
An MLB pitcher strikeout prop model built from the ground up to show its work — not just its picks.
What makes EdgeK different
What EdgeK does
EdgeK scans every MLB starting pitcher every game day and compares the model's strikeout projection against every sportsbook line. When the model thinks the implied probability on a line is wrong by 5% or more, that line shows up on the Value Bets tab.
Four scans a day — 10am, 1pm, 4pm, 7pm ET — so we catch lineup announcements, line movement, and late soft prices. Every bet gets logged. Every result gets settled. Every aggregate ROI number on this site is a sum of those real, dated, time-stamped bets.
How the model works (briefly)
Strikeout counts per pitcher per game follow a Negative Binomial distribution — same family as Poisson, but lets us tune the spread per pitcher. A finesse arm with a tight K distribution gets a different α (dispersion) than a high-variance power pitcher.
For each pitcher-day, the model predicts a mean K count (μ) and looks up the pitcher's volatility (α). Together those give us a full probability distribution over how many K's they're likely to throw — which becomes the bet probability for any given line, plus the 80% confidence interval you see on the Value Bets table.
Predicted probabilities get a final Beta calibration pass to keep them honest (with a 0.93 cap to avoid overconfident extreme bets), and the prediction intervals get a conformal recalibration against the full backtest so when we say "80% range," empirical coverage actually hits 80%.
The numbers right now
Methodology choices
- Edge threshold = 5%. Bets show up when the model thinks the line's implied probability is off by 5pp or more. Tighter than most edge-finders; chosen to surface only signals with real margin.
- Kelly sizing, defaulting ¼. Stored bets are at ¼ Kelly to keep volatility manageable. The dashboard displays at full 1× Kelly so P&L numbers are the bigger-picture story; the Value Bets risk filter lets you toggle to ⅛ / ½ / 1× for sizing decisions.
- Pre-pitch filter. Once a game's first pitch passes, that game's bets drop from the Value Bets view. No second-guessing in-progress games. Settled results show up the next morning.
- Hour ≥ 10 filter. Pre-10am ET bets are excluded from the public-facing dashboard. Earlier scans run before MLB lineup announcements and were proven net-negative — they stay in the audit trail but don't pollute the numbers.
- Scrub-tier OVER ladder suppression. For pitchers in the scrub tier, multi-line OVER ladders consistently lost money. The model now keeps only the highest-edge OVER on these — surgical fix, not a sweep.
Responsible betting
EdgeK reports model output. It is not financial advice, gambling advice, or a guarantee of future returns. Past performance — even calibrated past performance — doesn't promise tomorrow's results. Bet within your bankroll, set limits, and call 1-800-GAMBLER if betting becomes a problem.