Model

Lifetime Performance

5/20/26 → 6/8/26 · 19 days · 300 settled bets at 1× Kelly

Bets

363

157W · 143L

Win Rate

52.3%

157/300

ROI

+31.43%

profit / wager

P&L

+215.13u

Kelly-sized · settled only

CLV

+3.24%

beat close 96% · n=240

Avg Edge

12.4%

model edge over book

Cumulative P&L

Equity curve · 1× Kelly

+215.13u

CLV-positive vs CLV-negative

If CLV is a leading indicator, +CLV bets should ROI noticeably above -CLV bets

+CLV (beat the close)224 bets

Record

108W-116L

Win Rate

48%

ROI

+25.8%

−CLV (lost the close)10 bets

Record

7W-3L

Win Rate

70%

ROI

+88.6%

ROI by Edge Tier

If the model's predicted edge is real, higher-edge bets should ROI higher

OVER vs UNDER

Systematic side bias check — does the model perform symmetrically?

UNDER155 bets

Record

82W-53L

Win Rate

61%

ROI

+29.6%

P&L

+120.31u

OVER208 bets

Record

75W-90L

Win Rate

45%

ROI

+23.9%

P&L

+94.82u