Model

Lifetime Performance

5/20/26 → 8/6/26 · 2665 settled bets

Edge ≥%

Odds ≥Any

Bets

2815

1063W · 1602L

Win Rate

39.9%

41.3% break-even (+142)

ROI

-1.61%

profit / wager

P&L

-94.01u

1× Kelly-sized · settled

Win Rate vs Break-even

Is the win rate clearing the bar your odds require?

Slice	Bets	Win Rate	Break-even WR	Avg Odds	ROI
Lifetime	2665	39.9%	41.3%	+142	-1.6%
OVER	1808	35.9%	36.5%	+174	+0.6%
UNDER	857	48.3%	51.4%	-106	-5.2%
MAIN	1080	48.7%	52.1%	-109	-6.8%
ALT	1557	33.3%	33.6%	+198	+2.7%

Win Rate is colored by ROI (profitable or not), not by the break-even bar. On a plus-money book the win rate usually sits below the break-even rate and you still profit — win rate counts how often you win, but the edge is in how much the wins pay. ROI is the real profitability test; break-even WR is just context.

Break-even WR is the win rate you'd need just to break even at the average odds of that slice. Green means the model is winning more often than the price requires — plus-money bets (OVER, ALT) profit well below a 50% win rate.

Cumulative P&L

Equity curve · 1× Kelly-sized

-94.01u

Daily ROI Distribution

How variable is the day-to-day return?

31/75

profitable days

-1.61%

ROI (window)

Median day

-6.8%

Avg daily ROI

-2.8%

Best day

+160.5%

5/31/26 · n=11

Worst day

-100.0%

5/28/26 · n=1

ROI by Edge Tier

If the model's predicted edge is real, higher-edge bets should ROI higher

OVER vs UNDER

Systematic side bias check: does the model perform symmetrically?

UNDER905 bets

Record

414W-443L

Win Rate

48%

-106 avg

ROI

-5.0%

P&L

-116.76u

1× Kelly

OVER1910 bets

Record

649W-1159L

Win Rate

36%

+174 avg

ROI

+0.6%

P&L

+22.74u

1× Kelly

Performance by Scan Time

Which daily scan (10am / 1pm / 4pm ET) is most profitable?

Scan (ET)	Bets	Win Rate	ROI	P&L
10am	1195	39.7%	-3.1%	-79.4u
1pm	813	41.8%	+3.1%	+56.5u
4pm	503	39.4%	-1.8%	-19.7u
7pmRetired	148	33.1%	-14.7%	-46.3u

Grouped by which daily scan placed the bet. ROI is sizing-invariant; P&L is at 1× Kelly. Reads with the window/edge/line filters above — switch to Last 7d / 30d to see whether a slot's edge is holding up.

Slice

Bets

Win Rate

Break-even WR

Avg Odds

ROI

Lifetime

2665

39.9%

41.3%

+142

-1.6%

OVER

1808

35.9%

36.5%

+174

+0.6%

UNDER

857

48.3%

51.4%

-106

-5.2%

MAIN

1080

48.7%

52.1%

-109

-6.8%

ALT

1557

33.3%

33.6%

+198

+2.7%

Scan (ET)

Bets

Win Rate

ROI

P&L

10am

1195

39.7%

-3.1%

-79.4u

1pm

813

41.8%

+3.1%

+56.5u

4pm

503

39.4%

-1.8%

-19.7u

7pmRetired

148

33.1%

-14.7%

-46.3u