Aaron Civale
avg tier · 4.1K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
6
MAE
1.82
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.54
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.84
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.76
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7/4/26 | 3.86 | 6 | 2.14 |
| 6/28/26 | 3.76 | 2 | 1.76 |
| 6/23/26 | 3.32 | 5 | 1.68 |
| 6/17/26 | 3.25 | 2 | 1.25 |
| 5/25/26 | 3.99 | 2 | 1.99 |
| 5/20/26 | 4.08 | 2 | 2.08 |