Look up a pitcher
Bets
7
6W · 1L
Win Rate
85.7%
44.7% break-even (+124)
ROI
+93.97%
profit / wager
P&L
+13.38u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.82
Ks · n=6 predictions
Bias
+0.54
over-predicting
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0003 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 4 starts
Record
6W-1L
Win Rate
86%
+124 avg
MAE
1.76
P&L
+13.38u
UNDER3 bets
Record
3W-0L
Win Rate
100%
-107 avg
P&L
+6.00u
OVER4 bets
Record
3W-1L
Win Rate
75%
+153 avg
P&L
+7.38u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=3.9, α=0.000) · 80% range 2-6 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 21% · green = OVER 4
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
4 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/28/26 | @LAA | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -129 | 9.5% | 3.9 | 2–6 | 2 | WIN | +1.69u | DraftKings |
| 6/23/26 | @SF | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -232 | 9.1% | 4.1 | 2–6 | 5 | WIN | +1.30u | DraftKings |
| 6/23/26 | @SF | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | +113 | 12.5% | 4.1 | 2–6 | 5 | WIN | +2.66u | DraftKings |
| 6/23/26 | @SF | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +269 | 12.0% | 4.1 | 2–6 | 5 | WIN | +4.42u | DraftKings |
| 6/17/26 | PIT | UNDER | 3.5 | MAIN | -109 | 6.8% | 3.3 | 1–5 | 2 | WIN | +1.31u | BetRivers |
| 5/20/26 | @LAA | UNDER | 4.5 | N/A | +115 | 14.0% | 4.1 | 2–6 | 2 | WIN | +3.01u | BetMGM |
| 6/23/26 | @SF | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +620 | 8.6% | 4.1 | 2–6 | 5 | LOSS | -1.00u | DraftKings |