Aaron Nola
elite tier · 5.7K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
21
MAE
1.48
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.50
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.87
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.28
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.71
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/23/26 | 5.47 | 8 | 2.53 |
| 9/17/26 | 5.46 | 4 | 1.46 |
| 9/11/26 | 5.29 | 5 | 0.29 |
| 9/6/26 | 5.70 | 5 | 0.70 |
| 8/31/26 | 5.41 | 4 | 1.41 |
| 8/25/26 | 5.41 | 7 | 1.59 |
| 8/8/26 | 3.71 | 8 | 4.29 |
| 8/3/26 | 5.39 | 5 | 0.39 |
| 7/28/26 | 5.18 | 4 | 1.18 |
| 7/22/26 | 5.09 | 4 | 1.09 |
| 7/16/26 | 4.80 | 6 | 1.20 |
| 7/10/26 | 5.60 | 8 | 2.40 |
| 7/5/26 | 5.64 | 5 | 0.64 |
| 6/29/26 | 5.27 | 5 | 0.27 |
| 6/24/26 | 5.35 | 9 | 3.65 |
| 6/18/26 | 5.31 | 6 | 0.69 |
| 6/13/26 | 5.13 | 3 | 2.13 |
| 6/7/26 | 4.70 | 4 | 0.70 |
| 6/2/26 | 4.66 | 8 | 3.34 |
| 5/26/26 | 4.30 | 5 | 0.70 |
| 5/20/26 | 4.62 | 5 | 0.38 |