Adrian Houser
scrub tier · 3.8K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
6
MAE
1.36
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.63
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.55
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.51
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/25/26 | 3.86 | 2 | 1.86 |
| 8/12/26 | 3.70 | 5 | 1.30 |
| 6/9/26 | 3.40 | 6 | 2.60 |
| 6/4/26 | 3.57 | 5 | 1.43 |
| 5/30/26 | 4.34 | 4 | 0.34 |
| 5/23/26 | 4.37 | 5 | 0.63 |