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Bets
15
1W · 14L
Win Rate
6.7%
31.4% break-even (+219)
ROI
-88.90%
profit / wager
P&L
-29.11u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.78
Ks · n=13 predictions
Bias
+0.68
over-predicting
Volatility
Moderate spread
α=0.0180 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
1W-4L
Win Rate
20%▲ 20pp
+237 avg
MAE
1.96▲ 0.19
P&L
-6.20u▲ 16.72u
UNDER0 bets
Record
—
Win Rate
—
P&L
—
OVER15 bets
Record
1W-14L
Win Rate
7%
+219 avg
P&L
-29.11u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=4.8, α=0.018) · 80% range 2-7 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 21% · green = OVER 3.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
7 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/25/26 | CIN | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +265 | 7.2% | 4.8 | 2–7 | 8 | WIN | +2.64u | Fanatics |
| 7/30/26 | CHC | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +310 | 7.7% | 4.7 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.02u | Fanatics |
| 7/19/26 | @ARI | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +309 | 23.9% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -3.16u | DraftKings |
| 7/9/26 | MIL | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +182 | 15.5% | 4.8 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -2.41u | FanDuel |
| 7/3/26 | @CHC | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +172 | 14.2% | 4.7 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -2.24u | FanDuel |
| 6/22/26 | ARI | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -120 | 14.8% | 4.7 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -3.26u | BetMGM |
| 6/22/26 | ARI | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +194 | 16.7% | 4.7 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -2.53u | FanDuel |
| 6/22/26 | ARI | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +410 | 13.7% | 4.7 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -1.70u | FanDuel |
| 6/22/26 | ARI | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +890 | 9.7% | 4.7 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -1.07u | DraftKings |
| 6/22/26 | ARI | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -299 | 10.2% | 4.7 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -4.08u | DraftKings |
| 5/29/26 | CHC | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -124 | 16.0% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -3.59u | FanDuel |
| 5/29/26 | CHC | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +172 | 16.9% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -2.66u | FanDuel |
| 5/29/26 | CHC | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +390 | 16.0% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -2.01u | FanDuel |
| 5/29/26 | CHC | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +810 | 11.4% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.28u | DraftKings |
| 5/29/26 | CHC | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +1640 | 6.8% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -0.73u | DraftKings |