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Bets
31
11W · 20L
Win Rate
35.5%
39.7% break-even (+152)
ROI
-15.31%
profit / wager
P&L
-7.97u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.35
Ks · n=14 predictions
Bias
+0.05
neutral
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0003 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
3W-11L
Win Rate
21%▼ 26pp
+154 avg
MAE
1.68▲ 0.11
P&L
-11.92u▼ 15.87u
UNDER5 bets
Record
1W-4L
Win Rate
20%
-114 avg
P&L
-4.85u
OVER26 bets
Record
10W-16L
Win Rate
38%
+170 avg
P&L
-3.12u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=5.0, α=0.000) · 80% range 3-7 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 24% · green = OVER 4.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
10 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/6/26 | ATH | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -235 | 8.7% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 4 | WIN | +1.24u | BetMGM |
| 8/1/26 | PIT | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -140 | 7.6% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 1 | WIN | +1.30u | BetMGM |
| 7/26/26 | @STL | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -140 | 13.0% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 4 | WIN | +2.22u | Fanatics |
| 6/26/26 | @PIT | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -145 | 10.4% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +1.75u | Fanatics |
| 6/26/26 | @PIT | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +152 | 12.6% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +3.17u | FanDuel |
| 6/20/26 | @NYY | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -210 | 5.5% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 6 | WIN | +0.81u | BetMGM |
| 6/20/26 | @NYY | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | +105 | 5.9% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 6 | WIN | +1.22u | BetMGM |
| 6/20/26 | @NYY | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +225 | 5.7% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 6 | WIN | +1.84u | Bovada |
| 6/8/26 | @SD | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -190 | 8.5% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 6 | WIN | +1.30u | BetMGM |
| 6/8/26 | @SD | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | +115 | 10.7% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 6 | WIN | +2.31u | BetMGM |
| 6/8/26 | @SD | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +260 | 12.6% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 6 | WIN | +4.52u | Bovada |
| 8/6/26 | ATH | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +104 | 13.3% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -2.61u | FanDuel |
| 8/6/26 | ATH | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +222 | 13.4% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -1.94u | DraftKings |
| 8/6/26 | ATH | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +505 | 12.1% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -1.45u | DraftKings |
| 7/26/26 | @STL | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +175 | 16.3% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 4 | LOSS | -2.55u | Bovada |
| 7/26/26 | @STL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +390 | 14.2% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 4 | LOSS | -1.79u | FanDuel |
| 7/26/26 | @STL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +800 | 9.3% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 4 | LOSS | -1.04u | BetRivers |
| 7/20/26 | @SEA | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +125 | 6.1% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 6 | LOSS | -1.10u | DraftKings |
| 7/20/26 | @SEA | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -163 | 6.4% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 6 | LOSS | -1.68u | DraftKings |
| 7/12/26 | CHC | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +250 | 6.3% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -0.89u | Bovada |
| 7/12/26 | CHC | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +550 | 5.3% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -0.62u | Bovada |
| 7/12/26 | CHC | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +102 | 5.1% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.01u | FanDuel |
| 7/7/26 | PHI | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -140 | 7.7% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 8 | LOSS | -1.84u | BetMGM |
| 7/7/26 | PHI | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +129 | 8.6% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 8 | LOSS | -1.53u | DraftKings |
| 7/1/26 | @MIL | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -170 | 8.2% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -2.20u | Fanatics |
| 7/1/26 | @MIL | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | +135 | 9.8% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.71u | Bovada |
| 7/1/26 | @MIL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +300 | 9.4% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.25u | Bovada |
| 7/1/26 | @MIL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +675 | 7.3% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -0.84u | Bovada |
| 6/26/26 | @PIT | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +320 | 11.8% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 6 | LOSS | -1.54u | FanDuel |
| 6/8/26 | @SD | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +575 | 11.2% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 6 | LOSS | -1.31u | Bovada |
| 6/8/26 | @SD | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +1080 | 6.9% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 6 | LOSS | -0.76u | DraftKings |