Bets
5
3W · 2L
Win Rate
60.0%
3/5
ROI
+73.19%
profit / wager
P&L
+6.07u
1× Kelly · settled
MAE
0.89
Ks · n=5
Bias
-0.89
under-predicting
Volatility
Moderate spread
α=0.0279 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 1 start
Record
3W-2L
Win Rate
60%
MAE
0.89
P&L
+6.07u
UNDER0 bets
Record
—
Win Rate
—
P&L
—
OVER5 bets
Record
3W-2L
Win Rate
60%
P&L
+6.07u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=5.1, α=0.028) · 80% range 3-8 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 26% · green = OVER 4.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
1 start · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher — directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/8/26 | @SD | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -190 | 8.5% | 5.1 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +1.30u | BetMGM |
| 6/8/26 | @SD | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | +115 | 10.7% | 5.1 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +2.31u | BetMGM |
| 6/8/26 | @SD | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +260 | 12.6% | 5.1 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +4.52u | Bovada |
| 6/8/26 | @SD | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +575 | 11.2% | 5.1 | 3–8 | 6 | LOSS | -1.31u | Bovada |
| 6/8/26 | @SD | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +1080 | 6.9% | 5.1 | 3–8 | 6 | LOSS | -0.76u | DraftKings |