Andrew Abbott
avg tier · 4.5K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
20
MAE
1.60
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.07
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.97
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.18
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.74
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/23/26 | 3.82 | 6 | 2.18 |
| 9/16/26 | 3.79 | 5 | 1.21 |
| 9/11/26 | 4.09 | 0 | 4.09 |
| 9/5/26 | 4.43 | 5 | 0.57 |
| 8/29/26 | 3.83 | 1 | 2.83 |
| 8/18/26 | 3.78 | 6 | 2.22 |
| 8/6/26 | 5.35 | 4 | 1.35 |
| 8/1/26 | 4.67 | 1 | 3.67 |
| 7/26/26 | 3.92 | 4 | 0.08 |
| 7/20/26 | 4.63 | 6 | 1.37 |
| 7/12/26 | 4.91 | 3 | 1.91 |
| 7/7/26 | 4.55 | 8 | 3.45 |
| 7/1/26 | 4.79 | 3 | 1.79 |
| 6/26/26 | 5.77 | 6 | 0.23 |
| 6/20/26 | 4.73 | 6 | 1.27 |
| 6/14/26 | 3.92 | 5 | 1.08 |
| 6/8/26 | 5.11 | 6 | 0.89 |
| 6/2/26 | 4.23 | 5 | 0.77 |
| 5/27/26 | 4.15 | 4 | 0.15 |
| 5/20/26 | 3.96 | 3 | 0.96 |