Andrew Alvarez
good tier · 4.9K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
14
MAE
1.91
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.42
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.15
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.02
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
2.03
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0008
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
7
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/25/26 | 5.07 | 7 | 1.93 |
| 9/19/26 | 5.00 | 8 | 3.00 |
| 9/12/26 | 4.64 | 8 | 3.36 |
| 9/6/26 | 4.68 | 5 | 0.32 |
| 8/30/26 | 4.51 | 6 | 1.49 |
| 8/25/26 | 4.71 | 6 | 1.29 |
| 8/8/26 | 5.65 | 2 | 3.65 |
| 8/3/26 | 4.35 | 5 | 0.65 |
| 7/27/26 | 4.74 | 3 | 1.74 |
| 7/20/26 | 4.80 | 2 | 2.80 |
| 7/7/26 | 4.56 | 3 | 1.56 |
| 7/1/26 | 3.93 | 6 | 2.07 |
| 6/26/26 | 5.66 | 5 | 0.66 |
| 6/21/26 | 3.78 | 6 | 2.22 |