Andrew Painter
avg tier · 4.5K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
14
MAE
1.46
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.77
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.74
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.14
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.37
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0007
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
12
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/24/26 | 4.53 | 8 | 3.47 |
| 9/19/26 | 4.62 | 7 | 2.38 |
| 9/13/26 | 4.42 | 3 | 1.42 |
| 9/8/26 | 4.58 | 6 | 1.42 |
| 9/2/26 | 3.98 | 6 | 2.02 |
| 8/28/26 | 4.38 | 6 | 1.62 |
| 8/10/26 | 3.48 | 6 | 2.52 |
| 8/5/26 | 4.16 | 4 | 0.16 |
| 7/31/26 | 3.87 | 6 | 2.13 |
| 6/17/26 | 3.41 | 3 | 0.41 |
| 6/12/26 | 3.80 | 3 | 0.80 |
| 6/6/26 | 3.92 | 4 | 0.08 |
| 5/31/26 | 4.43 | 3 | 1.43 |
| 5/24/26 | 3.62 | 3 | 0.62 |