Anthony Kay
avg tier · 4.1K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
20
MAE
1.38
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.25
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.76
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
0.93
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
0.85
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0006
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
13
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/22/26 | 3.85 | 4 | 0.15 |
| 9/16/26 | 3.29 | 3 | 0.29 |
| 9/11/26 | 4.35 | 2 | 2.35 |
| 9/5/26 | 4.37 | 3 | 1.37 |
| 8/31/26 | 4.49 | 5 | 0.51 |
| 8/25/26 | 4.47 | 4 | 0.47 |
| 8/8/26 | 3.52 | 4 | 0.48 |
| 8/2/26 | 3.41 | 3 | 0.41 |
| 7/28/26 | 4.29 | 7 | 2.71 |
| 7/22/26 | 4.17 | 4 | 0.17 |
| 7/17/26 | 3.25 | 5 | 1.75 |
| 7/9/26 | 3.88 | 4 | 0.12 |
| 7/3/26 | 4.76 | 2 | 2.76 |
| 6/28/26 | 4.28 | 2 | 2.28 |
| 6/22/26 | 6.29 | 8 | 1.71 |
| 6/17/26 | 4.35 | 2 | 2.35 |
| 6/12/26 | 3.13 | 7 | 3.87 |
| 6/5/26 | 5.22 | 4 | 1.22 |
| 5/30/26 | 5.39 | 3 | 2.39 |
| 5/25/26 | 5.18 | 5 | 0.18 |