Bailey Ober
avg tier · 4.5K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
11
MAE
1.53
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.39
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.87
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.57
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.60
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0095
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0129
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/15/26 | 3.83 | 3 | 0.83 |
| 9/6/26 | 4.04 | 6 | 1.96 |
| 8/29/26 | 4.38 | 5 | 0.62 |
| 8/11/26 | 4.23 | 4 | 0.23 |
| 8/6/26 | 4.23 | 0 | 4.23 |
| 7/30/26 | 4.33 | 3 | 1.33 |
| 7/22/26 | 3.86 | 2 | 1.86 |
| 7/17/26 | 4.39 | 7 | 2.61 |
| 7/9/26 | 3.91 | 5 | 1.09 |
| 5/30/26 | 4.13 | 3 | 1.13 |
| 5/24/26 | 3.97 | 3 | 0.97 |