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Bets
9
4W · 5L
Win Rate
44.4%
33.2% break-even (+201)
ROI
+83.94%
profit / wager
P&L
+9.11u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.89
Ks · n=7 predictions
Bias
+0.83
over-predicting
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0095 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 4 starts
Record
4W-5L
Win Rate
44%
+201 avg
MAE
2.22
P&L
+9.11u
UNDER1 bet
Record
0W-1L
Win Rate
0%
+128 avg
P&L
-1.25u
OVER8 bets
Record
4W-4L
Win Rate
50%
+214 avg
P&L
+10.35u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=4.3, α=0.009) · 80% range 2-6 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 27% · green = OVER 3.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
4 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/17/26 | @CHC | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -125 | 8.4% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 7 | WIN | +1.51u | BetRivers |
| 7/17/26 | @CHC | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +190 | 10.0% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 7 | WIN | +2.90u | FanDuel |
| 7/17/26 | @CHC | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +420 | 8.3% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 7 | WIN | +4.34u | FanDuel |
| 7/17/26 | @CHC | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +950 | 5.8% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 7 | WIN | +6.11u | BetRivers |
| 8/6/26 | @KC | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -130 | 7.3% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 0 | LOSS | -1.67u | Fanatics |
| 8/6/26 | @KC | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +175 | 8.0% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 0 | LOSS | -1.25u | Fanatics |
| 8/6/26 | @KC | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +386 | 6.8% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 0 | LOSS | -0.86u | DraftKings |
| 7/22/26 | @CLE | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +340 | 5.6% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -0.73u | Bovada |
| 7/9/26 | CLE | UNDER | 3.5 | MAIN | +128 | 7.0% | 3.6 | 2–6 | 5 | LOSS | -1.25u | FanDuel |