Ben Brown
good tier · 5.3K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
5
MAE
1.09
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.49
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.31
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.09
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0004
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
30
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6/19/26 | 5.05 | 4 | 1.05 |
| 6/13/26 | 5.37 | 3 | 2.37 |
| 6/6/26 | 5.53 | 5 | 0.53 |
| 5/30/26 | 5.71 | 6 | 0.29 |
| 5/25/26 | 5.77 | 7 | 1.23 |