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Bets
11
1W · 10L
Win Rate
9.1%
34.9% break-even (+187)
ROI
-84.64%
profit / wager
P&L
-26.90u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.09
Ks · n=5 predictions
Bias
+0.49
neutral
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0004 · 30 starts
Recent form · Last 2 starts
Record
1W-10L
Win Rate
9%
+187 avg
MAE
1.09
P&L
-26.90u
UNDER0 bets
Record
—
Win Rate
—
P&L
—
OVER11 bets
Record
1W-10L
Win Rate
9%
+187 avg
P&L
-26.90u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=5.9, α=0.000) · 80% range 3-8 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 24% · green = OVER 4.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
2 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/19/26 | TOR | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -275 | 9.6% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 4 | WIN | +1.30u | Fanatics |
| 6/19/26 | TOR | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -106 | 16.3% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -3.36u | BetOnline.ag |
| 6/19/26 | TOR | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +198 | 16.7% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -2.51u | FanDuel |
| 6/19/26 | TOR | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +410 | 14.0% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -1.74u | FanDuel |
| 6/19/26 | TOR | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +890 | 10.3% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -1.15u | DraftKings |
| 6/19/26 | TOR | OVER | 8.5 | ALT | +1550 | 5.2% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -0.56u | BetOnline.ag |
| 6/13/26 | @SF | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -250 | 16.0% | 6.2 | 4–9 | 3 | LOSS | -5.59u | Fanatics |
| 6/13/26 | @SF | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -115 | 21.5% | 6.2 | 4–9 | 3 | LOSS | -4.63u | Bovada |
| 6/13/26 | @SF | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +194 | 25.3% | 6.2 | 4–9 | 3 | LOSS | -3.83u | FanDuel |
| 6/13/26 | @SF | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +410 | 23.2% | 6.2 | 4–9 | 3 | LOSS | -2.89u | FanDuel |
| 6/13/26 | @SF | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +820 | 17.3% | 6.2 | 4–9 | 3 | LOSS | -1.95u | DraftKings |