Brandon Pfaadt
avg tier · 4.4K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
13
MAE
2.06
Ks off, on average
Bias
+1.38
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.22
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.84
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
2.26
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0408
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0567
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/25/26 | 5.14 | 7 | 1.86 |
| 9/19/26 | 5.21 | 3 | 2.21 |
| 9/12/26 | 5.15 | 7 | 1.85 |
| 9/5/26 | 5.18 | 4 | 1.18 |
| 8/25/26 | 5.10 | 3 | 2.10 |
| 8/8/26 | 5.15 | 2 | 3.15 |
| 8/3/26 | 5.13 | 3 | 2.13 |
| 7/28/26 | 5.03 | 4 | 1.03 |
| 7/23/26 | 4.54 | 1 | 3.54 |
| 7/18/26 | 4.43 | 3 | 1.43 |
| 7/11/26 | 5.12 | 2 | 3.12 |
| 7/6/26 | 5.26 | 6 | 0.74 |
| 6/30/26 | 4.50 | 2 | 2.50 |