Brandon Sproat
good tier · 4.8K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
12
MAE
1.81
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.29
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.35
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.10
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
2.62
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0006
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
16
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/3/26 | 5.08 | 4 | 1.08 |
| 7/27/26 | 4.97 | 5 | 0.03 |
| 7/21/26 | 4.74 | 4 | 0.74 |
| 7/11/26 | 5.58 | 3 | 2.58 |
| 7/5/26 | 5.07 | 4 | 1.07 |
| 6/30/26 | 4.99 | 7 | 2.01 |
| 6/23/26 | 4.31 | 10 | 5.69 |
| 6/17/26 | 4.17 | 6 | 1.83 |
| 6/10/26 | 4.00 | 3 | 1.00 |
| 6/5/26 | 4.59 | 2 | 2.59 |
| 5/30/26 | 4.09 | 4 | 0.09 |
| 5/24/26 | 3.97 | 7 | 3.03 |