Brandon Young
good tier · 4.7K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
20
MAE
1.50
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.76
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.97
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.40
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
0.64
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0005
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
23
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/25/26 | 4.79 | 6 | 1.21 |
| 9/20/26 | 4.61 | 9 | 4.39 |
| 9/14/26 | 4.63 | 6 | 1.37 |
| 9/8/26 | 4.64 | 2 | 2.64 |
| 9/3/26 | 4.62 | 7 | 2.38 |
| 8/28/26 | 4.50 | 4 | 0.50 |
| 8/11/26 | 4.13 | 4 | 0.13 |
| 8/6/26 | 4.78 | 4 | 0.78 |
| 7/31/26 | 4.96 | 5 | 0.04 |
| 7/25/26 | 4.24 | 6 | 1.76 |
| 7/19/26 | 3.83 | 7 | 3.17 |
| 7/10/26 | 4.48 | 5 | 0.52 |
| 7/4/26 | 5.04 | 5 | 0.04 |
| 6/27/26 | 4.36 | 8 | 3.64 |
| 6/21/26 | 3.97 | 5 | 1.03 |
| 6/16/26 | 4.26 | 2 | 2.26 |
| 6/10/26 | 5.98 | 5 | 0.98 |
| 6/5/26 | 4.04 | 4 | 0.04 |
| 5/30/26 | 4.17 | 7 | 2.83 |
| 5/24/26 | 3.78 | 4 | 0.22 |