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Bets
8
6W · 2L
Win Rate
75.0%
46.8% break-even (+114)
ROI
+49.91%
profit / wager
P&L
+7.34u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.33
Ks · n=13 predictions
Bias
-0.70
under-predicting
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0005 · 23 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
5W-1L
Win Rate
83%▲ 33pp
+126 avg
MAE
1.25▼ 0.34
P&L
+7.61u▲ 7.88u
UNDER5 bets
Record
3W-2L
Win Rate
60%
-122 avg
P&L
-0.61u
OVER3 bets
Record
3W-0L
Win Rate
100%
+201 avg
P&L
+7.95u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=4.2, α=0.001) · 80% range 2-6 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 25% · green = OVER 4.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
7 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/4/26 | @CIN | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -175 | 5.0% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 5 | WIN | +0.79u | BetMGM |
| 6/27/26 | WAS | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +150 | 8.9% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 8 | WIN | +2.21u | Bovada |
| 6/27/26 | WAS | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +350 | 8.7% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 8 | WIN | +3.90u | Bovada |
| 6/21/26 | @LAD | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +168 | 6.9% | 4.3 | 2–6 | 5 | WIN | +1.83u | FanDuel |
| 6/16/26 | @SEA | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -103 | 9.4% | 4.1 | 2–6 | 2 | WIN | +1.86u | BetRivers |
| 5/24/26 | DET | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -135 | 10.9% | 3.8 | 2–6 | 4 | WIN | +1.90u | BetMGM |
| 7/19/26 | @HOU | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -109 | 14.3% | 3.8 | 2–6 | 7 | LOSS | -2.99u | BetRivers |
| 6/10/26 | SEA | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -102 | 10.7% | 4.1 | 2–6 | 5 | LOSS | -2.17u | FanDuel |