Braxton Ashcraft
elite tier · 5.8K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
18
MAE
2.19
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.16
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.55
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.49
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.68
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0005
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
23
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/5/26 | 6.22 | 9 | 2.78 |
| 8/30/26 | 6.12 | 3 | 3.12 |
| 8/24/26 | 5.66 | 2 | 3.66 |
| 8/18/26 | 5.86 | 4 | 1.86 |
| 8/6/26 | 6.02 | 5 | 1.02 |
| 8/1/26 | 6.57 | 5 | 1.57 |
| 7/26/26 | 6.18 | 5 | 1.18 |
| 7/20/26 | 6.15 | 2 | 4.15 |
| 7/11/26 | 5.71 | 6 | 0.29 |
| 7/4/26 | 5.77 | 7 | 1.23 |
| 6/29/26 | 6.39 | 8 | 1.61 |
| 6/24/26 | 6.16 | 10 | 3.84 |
| 6/17/26 | 6.23 | 7 | 0.77 |
| 6/12/26 | 6.62 | 4 | 2.62 |
| 6/6/26 | 6.48 | 5 | 1.48 |
| 5/31/26 | 6.14 | 11 | 4.86 |
| 5/26/26 | 5.53 | 5 | 0.53 |
| 5/21/26 | 6.10 | 9 | 2.90 |