Bryan Woo
elite tier · 5.6K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
19
MAE
1.82
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.57
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.12
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.23
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.32
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/24/26 | 5.89 | 2 | 3.89 |
| 9/18/26 | 6.02 | 4 | 2.02 |
| 9/12/26 | 6.00 | 5 | 1.00 |
| 9/6/26 | 5.94 | 9 | 3.06 |
| 9/1/26 | 5.81 | 7 | 1.19 |
| 8/26/26 | 5.81 | 5 | 0.81 |
| 8/11/26 | 6.73 | 5 | 1.73 |
| 8/5/26 | 6.01 | 5 | 1.01 |
| 7/30/26 | 6.03 | 8 | 1.97 |
| 7/25/26 | 6.08 | 5 | 1.08 |
| 7/18/26 | 5.81 | 7 | 1.19 |
| 7/7/26 | 5.44 | 5 | 0.44 |
| 6/30/26 | 6.05 | 5 | 1.05 |
| 6/24/26 | 5.77 | 4 | 1.77 |
| 6/18/26 | 5.69 | 9 | 3.31 |
| 6/11/26 | 5.94 | 4 | 1.94 |
| 6/5/26 | 5.81 | 7 | 1.19 |
| 5/30/26 | 5.53 | 1 | 4.53 |
| 5/24/26 | 5.39 | 4 | 1.39 |