Bryce Elder
avg tier · 4.6K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
15
MAE
1.51
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.63
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.83
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.41
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.33
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0255
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0352
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/31/26 | 4.93 | 3 | 1.93 |
| 8/25/26 | 4.50 | 5 | 0.50 |
| 8/10/26 | 4.86 | 4 | 0.86 |
| 8/5/26 | 4.88 | 3 | 1.88 |
| 7/31/26 | 4.87 | 3 | 1.87 |
| 7/25/26 | 4.96 | 8 | 3.04 |
| 7/20/26 | 4.42 | 4 | 0.42 |
| 7/9/26 | 4.73 | 3 | 1.73 |
| 6/27/26 | 3.85 | 4 | 0.15 |
| 6/21/26 | 4.70 | 6 | 1.30 |
| 6/14/26 | 4.78 | 2 | 2.78 |
| 6/7/26 | 3.74 | 4 | 0.26 |
| 6/2/26 | 4.71 | 6 | 1.29 |
| 5/27/26 | 4.77 | 1 | 3.77 |
| 5/22/26 | 4.80 | 4 | 0.80 |