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Bets
35
12W · 23L
Win Rate
34.3%
38.3% break-even (+161)
ROI
+28.31%
profit / wager
P&L
+17.31u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
2.16
Ks · n=13 predictions
Bias
+0.25
neutral
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0020 · 17 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
3W-13L
Win Rate
19%▼ 29pp
+149 avg
MAE
1.76▼ 0.42
P&L
-18.46u▼ 54.24u
UNDER3 bets
Record
1W-2L
Win Rate
33%
-114 avg
P&L
-1.23u
OVER32 bets
Record
11W-21L
Win Rate
34%
+171 avg
P&L
+18.54u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=5.2, α=0.002) · 80% range 3-8 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 27% · green = OVER 4.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
10 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/3/26 | @MIL | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -160 | 7.7% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 5 | WIN | +1.25u | BetMGM |
| 6/30/26 | @PHI | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -112 | 6.7% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +1.26u | BetRivers |
| 6/30/26 | @PHI | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +181 | 6.0% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +1.68u | DraftKings |
| 6/13/26 | MIA | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -225 | 7.6% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +1.10u | BetMGM |
| 6/13/26 | MIA | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | +100 | 10.7% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +2.14u | BetMGM |
| 6/13/26 | MIA | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +215 | 12.0% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +3.80u | DraftKings |
| 5/27/26 | CHC | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -225 | 8.5% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +1.22u | BetMGM |
| 5/22/26 | @TOR | OVER | 3.5 | N/A | -156 | 15.2% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 11 | WIN | +2.50u | BetOnline.ag |
| 5/22/26 | @TOR | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +1400 | 8.7% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 11 | WIN | +12.99u | DraftKings |
| 5/22/26 | @TOR | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +154 | 19.8% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 11 | WIN | +5.02u | FanDuel |
| 5/22/26 | @TOR | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +350 | 18.1% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 11 | WIN | +8.14u | FanDuel |
| 5/22/26 | @TOR | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +750 | 14.0% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 11 | WIN | +11.87u | FanDuel |
| 8/3/26 | @MIL | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +125 | 7.2% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 5 | LOSS | -1.29u | BetMGM |
| 7/28/26 | ARI | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -150 | 9.4% | 4.7 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -2.36u | Fanatics |
| 7/28/26 | ARI | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +148 | 10.1% | 4.7 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.70u | DraftKings |
| 7/28/26 | ARI | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +327 | 9.2% | 4.7 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.21u | DraftKings |
| 7/28/26 | ARI | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +750 | 7.1% | 4.7 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -0.81u | FanDuel |
| 7/5/26 | @WAS | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -222 | 6.6% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 0 | LOSS | -2.11u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/5/26 | @WAS | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -105 | 6.7% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 0 | LOSS | -1.38u | BetMGM |
| 7/5/26 | @WAS | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +200 | 6.6% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 0 | LOSS | -0.99u | BetMGM |
| 7/5/26 | @WAS | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +420 | 5.5% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 0 | LOSS | -0.69u | FanDuel |
| 6/30/26 | @PHI | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +381 | 5.3% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 6 | LOSS | -0.68u | DraftKings |
| 6/25/26 | SEA | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -136 | 16.1% | 6.2 | 4–9 | 4 | LOSS | -3.80u | BetRivers |
| 6/25/26 | SEA | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +162 | 20.0% | 6.2 | 4–9 | 4 | LOSS | -3.23u | FanDuel |
| 6/25/26 | SEA | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +320 | 18.4% | 6.2 | 4–9 | 4 | LOSS | -2.41u | FanDuel |
| 6/19/26 | @COL | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -220 | 8.7% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 1 | LOSS | -2.79u | DraftKings |
| 6/19/26 | @COL | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -116 | 7.2% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 1 | LOSS | -1.56u | DraftKings |
| 6/19/26 | @COL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +170 | 10.4% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 1 | LOSS | -1.65u | Fanatics |
| 6/19/26 | @COL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +350 | 9.6% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 1 | LOSS | -1.23u | Bovada |
| 6/19/26 | @COL | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +680 | 6.7% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 1 | LOSS | -0.77u | DraftKings |
| 6/13/26 | MIA | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +463 | 11.1% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 6 | LOSS | -1.35u | DraftKings |
| 6/13/26 | MIA | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -118 | 5.5% | 4.2 | 2–6 | 6 | LOSS | -1.20u | FanDuel |
| 6/2/26 | @HOU | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +172 | 6.6% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -1.04u | FanDuel |
| 6/2/26 | @HOU | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +350 | 6.3% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -0.81u | Bovada |
| 6/2/26 | @HOU | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +750 | 5.5% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -0.62u | FanDuel |