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Bets
29
8W · 13L
Win Rate
38.1%
35.1% break-even (+185)
ROI
-21.81%
profit / wager
P&L
-8.01u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
2.60
Ks · n=14 predictions
Bias
-0.72
under-predicting
Volatility
High spread
α=0.0438 · 24 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
5W-4L
Win Rate
56%▲ 31pp
+146 avg
MAE
2.06▼ 1.23
P&L
-2.39u▲ 3.24u
UNDER5 bets
Record
3W-0L
Win Rate
100%
-114 avg
P&L
+5.24u
OVER24 bets
Record
5W-13L
Win Rate
28%
+211 avg
P&L
-13.26u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=5.4, α=0.044) · 80% range 3-8 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 31% · green = OVER 5.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
7 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/17/26 | @ATH | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +195 | 6.3% | 5.1 | 3–8 | 9 | WIN | +1.86u | BetMGM |
| 7/17/26 | @ATH | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +380 | 5.5% | 5.1 | 3–8 | 9 | WIN | +2.66u | BetMGM |
| 7/12/26 | NYY | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -116 | 7.0% | 5.1 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +1.31u | DraftKings |
| 7/5/26 | PIT | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +110 | 8.7% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 3 | WIN | +1.84u | BetMGM |
| 7/5/26 | PIT | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -140 | 12.2% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 3 | WIN | +2.10u | DraftKings |
| 6/30/26 | @BOS | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -115 | 5.8% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 13 | WIN | +1.08u | BetMGM |
| 6/30/26 | @BOS | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +188 | 8.3% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 13 | WIN | +2.38u | FanDuel |
| 6/30/26 | @BOS | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +390 | 8.5% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 13 | WIN | +4.14u | FanDuel |
| 7/28/26 | TOR | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -175 | 14.8% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -4.06u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/28/26 | TOR | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | +120 | 17.9% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -3.29u | Bovada |
| 7/28/26 | TOR | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +255 | 19.3% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -2.68u | BetRivers |
| 7/28/26 | TOR | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +575 | 18.1% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -2.12u | BetRivers |
| 6/20/26 | @TB | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -220 | 7.2% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 1 | LOSS | -2.32u | Fanatics |
| 6/20/26 | @TB | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | +112 | 12.8% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 1 | LOSS | -2.43u | BetRivers |
| 6/20/26 | @TB | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +225 | 12.8% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 1 | LOSS | -1.84u | FanDuel |
| 6/20/26 | @TB | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +490 | 12.2% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 1 | LOSS | -1.47u | FanDuel |
| 6/20/26 | @TB | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +1080 | 9.7% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 1 | LOSS | -1.06u | DraftKings |
| 6/13/26 | SEA | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +134 | 6.3% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 5 | LOSS | -1.10u | FanDuel |
| 6/13/26 | SEA | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +290 | 9.3% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 5 | LOSS | -1.24u | FanDuel |
| 6/13/26 | SEA | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +630 | 9.6% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 5 | LOSS | -1.11u | FanDuel |
| 6/13/26 | SEA | OVER | 8.5 | ALT | +1060 | 6.1% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 5 | LOSS | -0.66u | DraftKings |
| 8/7/26 | CIN | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +124 | 11.0% | 5.4 | 3–8 | — | — | — | BetOnline.ag |
| 8/7/26 | CIN | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -148 | 10.2% | 5.4 | 3–8 | — | — | — | BetRivers |
| 6/19/26 | @TB | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -230 | 7.0% | 5.4 | 3–8 | — | — | — | Fanatics |
| 6/19/26 | @TB | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -105 | 9.7% | 5.4 | 3–8 | — | — | — | Fanatics |
| 6/19/26 | @TB | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +225 | 13.8% | 5.4 | 3–8 | — | — | — | Bovada |
| 6/19/26 | @TB | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +475 | 12.7% | 5.4 | 3–8 | — | — | — | Bovada |
| 6/19/26 | @TB | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +840 | 8.2% | 5.4 | 3–8 | — | — | — | DraftKings |
| 6/19/26 | @TB | OVER | 8.5 | ALT | +1760 | 5.7% | 5.4 | 3–8 | — | — | — | DraftKings |