Cade Cavalli
elite tier · 5.7K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
20
MAE
2.46
Ks off, on average
Bias
-1.15
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.95
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.04
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
2.57
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0438
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0794
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
24
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/18/26 | 5.48 | 6 | 0.52 |
| 9/11/26 | 5.47 | 9 | 3.53 |
| 9/5/26 | 5.33 | 8 | 2.67 |
| 8/29/26 | 5.74 | 8 | 2.26 |
| 8/24/26 | 5.77 | 7 | 1.23 |
| 8/7/26 | 5.39 | 8 | 2.61 |
| 8/2/26 | 4.95 | 3 | 1.95 |
| 7/28/26 | 4.31 | 3 | 1.31 |
| 7/22/26 | 4.88 | 8 | 3.12 |
| 7/17/26 | 5.13 | 9 | 3.87 |
| 7/12/26 | 5.07 | 5 | 0.07 |
| 7/5/26 | 5.34 | 3 | 2.34 |
| 6/30/26 | 5.30 | 13 | 7.70 |
| 6/25/26 | 5.14 | 7 | 1.86 |
| 6/20/26 | 4.87 | 1 | 3.87 |
| 6/13/26 | 5.69 | 5 | 0.69 |
| 6/7/26 | 4.94 | 2 | 2.94 |
| 6/1/26 | 5.20 | 6 | 0.80 |
| 5/26/26 | 4.65 | 7 | 2.35 |
| 5/21/26 | 5.45 | 9 | 3.55 |