Cal Quantrill
scrub tier · 3.6K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
10
MAE
2.25
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.04
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.63
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.05
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
2.45
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0504
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0702
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/19/26 | 4.25 | 0 | 4.25 |
| 9/13/26 | 4.23 | 4 | 0.23 |
| 9/3/26 | 4.17 | 5 | 0.83 |
| 8/29/26 | 4.20 | 8 | 3.80 |
| 8/18/26 | 3.87 | 5 | 1.13 |
| 8/12/26 | 3.86 | 6 | 2.14 |
| 7/28/26 | 3.45 | 7 | 3.55 |
| 7/22/26 | 4.01 | 1 | 3.01 |
| 7/17/26 | 3.76 | 3 | 0.76 |
| 7/10/26 | 3.79 | 1 | 2.79 |