Cam Schlittler
elite tier · 7.1K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
21
MAE
2.46
Ks off, on average
Bias
-1.63
predicted − actual
RMSE
3.11
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.03
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
3.13
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0005
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
29
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/24/26 | 5.83 | 5 | 0.83 |
| 9/19/26 | 5.88 | 6 | 0.12 |
| 9/13/26 | 5.78 | 8 | 2.22 |
| 9/8/26 | 5.96 | 10 | 4.04 |
| 9/2/26 | 6.05 | 9 | 2.95 |
| 8/28/26 | 6.01 | 8 | 1.99 |
| 8/9/26 | 5.57 | 11 | 5.43 |
| 8/3/26 | 5.47 | 6 | 0.53 |
| 7/29/26 | 6.06 | 8 | 1.94 |
| 7/24/26 | 6.22 | 12 | 5.78 |
| 7/19/26 | 5.65 | 8 | 2.35 |
| 7/11/26 | 6.09 | 6 | 0.09 |
| 7/6/26 | 4.67 | 8 | 3.33 |
| 6/30/26 | 6.81 | 5 | 1.81 |
| 6/25/26 | 5.72 | 9 | 3.28 |
| 6/19/26 | 5.92 | 13 | 7.08 |
| 6/13/26 | 5.64 | 7 | 1.36 |
| 6/7/26 | 6.94 | 5 | 1.94 |
| 6/2/26 | 6.82 | 3 | 3.82 |
| 5/26/26 | 6.20 | 6 | 0.20 |
| 5/20/26 | 6.53 | 7 | 0.47 |