Carmen Mlodzinski
scrub tier · 3.3K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
4
MAE
2.97
Ks off, on average
Bias
+2.97
predicted − actual
RMSE
3.01
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.97
n=4
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.1216
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.2144
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
26
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/26 | 4.12 | 1 | 3.12 |
| 8/7/26 | 3.85 | 1 | 2.85 |
| 5/25/26 | 4.27 | 2 | 2.27 |
| 5/20/26 | 4.65 | 1 | 3.65 |