Casey Mize
good tier · 4.7K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
15
MAE
1.88
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.54
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.36
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
3.08
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
0.89
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0214
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0296
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/19/26 | 4.94 | 2 | 2.94 |
| 9/14/26 | 4.90 | 0 | 4.90 |
| 9/8/26 | 4.68 | 7 | 2.32 |
| 9/2/26 | 5.48 | 4 | 1.48 |
| 8/28/26 | 4.76 | 1 | 3.76 |
| 8/10/26 | 4.95 | 6 | 1.05 |
| 7/25/26 | 4.69 | 3 | 1.69 |
| 7/19/26 | 5.60 | 5 | 0.60 |
| 7/11/26 | 5.60 | 5 | 0.60 |
| 7/5/26 | 4.51 | 4 | 0.51 |
| 6/29/26 | 5.45 | 10 | 4.55 |
| 6/23/26 | 5.05 | 6 | 0.95 |
| 6/17/26 | 3.97 | 3 | 0.97 |
| 5/27/26 | 4.82 | 6 | 1.18 |
| 5/21/26 | 4.66 | 4 | 0.66 |