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Bets
14
6W · 1L
Win Rate
85.7%
55.9% break-even (-127)
ROI
+56.11%
profit / wager
P&L
+9.66u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.30
Ks · n=9 predictions
Bias
-0.18
neutral
Volatility
Moderate spread
α=0.0214 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
5W-1L
Win Rate
83%▼ 17pp
-112 avg
MAE
1.59
P&L
+8.98u▲ 8.29u
UNDER7 bets
Record
6W-1L
Win Rate
86%
-127 avg
P&L
+9.66u
OVER7 bets
Record
0W-0L
Win Rate
0%
0 avg
P&L
+0.00u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=4.8, α=0.021) · 80% range 2-7 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 22% · green = OVER 5.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
5 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/25/26 | KC | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -111 | 14.6% | 4.7 | 2–7 | 3 | WIN | +2.77u | DraftKings |
| 7/19/26 | @LAA | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +110 | 11.2% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +2.35u | Bovada |
| 7/19/26 | @LAA | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -159 | 12.1% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +1.97u | BetRivers |
| 7/5/26 | @TEX | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +136 | 11.1% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 4 | WIN | +2.62u | FanDuel |
| 7/5/26 | @TEX | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -150 | 10.2% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 4 | WIN | +1.70u | BetMGM |
| 5/27/26 | LAA | UNDER | 6.5 | ALT | -286 | 5.1% | 4.8 | 2–7 | 6 | WIN | +0.69u | BetRivers |
| 6/23/26 | NYY | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -115 | 11.3% | 4.8 | 2–7 | 6 | LOSS | -2.44u | FanDuel |
| 7/31/26 | @ATH | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -192 | 7.8% | 5.0 | 3–7 | — | — | — | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/31/26 | @ATH | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +112 | 9.1% | 5.0 | 3–7 | — | — | — | BetRivers |
| 7/31/26 | @ATH | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +245 | 10.1% | 5.0 | 3–7 | — | — | — | BetRivers |
| 7/31/26 | @ATH | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +525 | 8.7% | 5.0 | 3–7 | — | — | — | BetRivers |
| 6/14/26 | @CLE | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -138 | 6.5% | 4.4 | 2–7 | — | VOID | — | FanDuel |
| 6/14/26 | @CLE | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +170 | 8.4% | 4.4 | 2–7 | — | VOID | — | Bovada |
| 6/14/26 | @CLE | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +360 | 7.0% | 4.4 | 2–7 | — | VOID | — | BetMGM |