Chad Patrick
good tier · 4.7K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
1
MAE
0.20
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.20
predicted − actual
RMSE
0.20
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
0.20
n=1
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0005
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
29
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5/27/26 | 3.80 | 4 | 0.20 |