Chase Burns
elite tier · 6.4K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
17
MAE
1.44
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.07
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.88
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
0.95
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.79
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0209
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0389
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
22
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/18/26 | 4.96 | 4 | 0.96 |
| 9/13/26 | 6.03 | 5 | 1.03 |
| 9/7/26 | 6.19 | 5 | 1.19 |
| 8/30/26 | 6.23 | 7 | 0.77 |
| 8/24/26 | 5.82 | 5 | 0.82 |
| 8/8/26 | 5.56 | 6 | 0.44 |
| 8/2/26 | 6.35 | 9 | 2.65 |
| 7/28/26 | 5.37 | 4 | 1.37 |
| 7/21/26 | 6.17 | 6 | 0.17 |
| 7/8/26 | 6.32 | 2 | 4.32 |
| 7/2/26 | 6.38 | 4 | 2.38 |
| 6/27/26 | 6.06 | 10 | 3.94 |
| 6/21/26 | 6.40 | 7 | 0.60 |
| 6/15/26 | 7.02 | 7 | 0.02 |
| 6/9/26 | 7.52 | 7 | 0.52 |
| 6/3/26 | 7.03 | 9 | 1.97 |
| 5/26/26 | 6.70 | 8 | 1.30 |