Chris Bassitt
good tier · 4.7K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
9
MAE
1.39
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.27
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.66
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.26
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0047
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0061
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/23/26 | 3.87 | 2 | 1.87 |
| 9/16/26 | 4.30 | 6 | 1.70 |
| 9/11/26 | 4.29 | 5 | 0.71 |
| 9/5/26 | 4.24 | 6 | 1.76 |
| 8/30/26 | 4.25 | 4 | 0.25 |
| 8/25/26 | 4.14 | 5 | 0.86 |
| 6/3/26 | 4.15 | 1 | 3.15 |
| 5/28/26 | 3.99 | 2 | 1.99 |
| 5/22/26 | 4.19 | 4 | 0.19 |