Chris Paddack
scrub tier · 3.7K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
2
MAE
2.52
Ks off, on average
Bias
+1.45
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.91
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.52
n=2
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.1006
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.1404
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5/29/26 | 3.97 | 0 | 3.97 |
| 5/23/26 | 3.92 | 5 | 1.08 |