Chris Sale
elite tier · 7.5K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
16
MAE
2.03
Ks off, on average
Bias
-1.27
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.58
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.29
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
2.49
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/23/26 | 6.02 | 10 | 3.98 |
| 9/11/26 | 6.19 | 6 | 0.19 |
| 9/4/26 | 6.08 | 7 | 0.92 |
| 8/27/26 | 6.09 | 11 | 4.91 |
| 8/8/26 | 6.57 | 8 | 1.43 |
| 7/29/26 | 6.38 | 9 | 2.62 |
| 7/23/26 | 5.81 | 11 | 5.19 |
| 7/17/26 | 5.90 | 6 | 0.10 |
| 7/10/26 | 6.28 | 5 | 1.28 |
| 7/4/26 | 6.28 | 3 | 3.28 |
| 6/28/26 | 7.35 | 10 | 2.65 |
| 6/20/26 | 6.51 | 7 | 0.49 |
| 6/10/26 | 6.66 | 6 | 0.66 |
| 6/4/26 | 6.72 | 6 | 0.72 |
| 5/28/26 | 5.45 | 8 | 2.55 |
| 5/20/26 | 6.44 | 8 | 1.56 |