Christian Scott
elite tier · 5.6K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
16
MAE
1.88
Ks off, on average
Bias
-1.29
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.07
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.87
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.94
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0006
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
18
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/19/26 | 5.09 | 7 | 1.91 |
| 9/13/26 | 5.42 | 7 | 1.58 |
| 9/6/26 | 5.04 | 7 | 1.96 |
| 8/28/26 | 5.12 | 2 | 3.12 |
| 8/10/26 | 5.23 | 6 | 0.77 |
| 8/5/26 | 4.00 | 7 | 3.00 |
| 7/29/26 | 4.63 | 7 | 2.37 |
| 7/22/26 | 4.60 | 6 | 1.40 |
| 7/16/26 | 4.60 | 7 | 2.40 |
| 7/8/26 | 4.45 | 5 | 0.55 |
| 7/3/26 | 4.24 | 7 | 2.76 |
| 6/27/26 | 4.44 | 6 | 1.56 |
| 6/11/26 | 4.82 | 6 | 1.18 |
| 6/5/26 | 4.61 | 3 | 1.61 |
| 5/30/26 | 4.62 | 8 | 3.38 |
| 5/24/26 | 4.48 | 5 | 0.52 |