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Bets
13
1W · 11L
Win Rate
8.3%
48.4% break-even (+106)
ROI
-71.05%
profit / wager
P&L
-21.90u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.88
Ks · n=11 predictions
Bias
-1.59
under-predicting
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0006 · 18 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
0W-5L
Win Rate
0%▼ 17pp
-112 avg
MAE
1.94▼ 0.15
P&L
-18.12u▼ 15.76u
UNDER13 bets
Record
1W-11L
Win Rate
8%
+106 avg
P&L
-21.90u
OVER0 bets
Record
—
Win Rate
—
P&L
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Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=4.5, α=0.001) · 80% range 2-7 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 17% · green = OVER 5.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
10 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/8/26 | KC | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +115 | 22.2% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 5 | WIN | +4.77u | DraftKings |
| 8/5/26 | @CLE | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +115 | 16.5% | 4.0 | 2–6 | 7 | LOSS | -3.09u | BetMGM |
| 8/5/26 | @CLE | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -142 | 20.3% | 4.0 | 2–6 | 7 | LOSS | -4.91u | DraftKings |
| 7/29/26 | ATL | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -120 | 14.0% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 7 | LOSS | -3.07u | DraftKings |
| 7/22/26 | @MIL | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +100 | 18.5% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 6 | LOSS | -3.70u | DraftKings |
| 7/16/26 | @PHI | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -122 | 15.1% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 7 | LOSS | -3.35u | DraftKings |
| 7/3/26 | @ATL | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +103 | 9.1% | 4.2 | 2–6 | 7 | LOSS | -1.79u | DraftKings |
| 6/27/26 | PHI | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +105 | 5.3% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 6 | LOSS | -1.03u | DraftKings |
| 6/11/26 | STL | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -130 | 8.3% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 6 | LOSS | -1.90u | DraftKings |
| 5/30/26 | MIA | UNDER | 3.5 | ALT | +290 | 5.9% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 8 | LOSS | -0.79u | BetRivers |
| 5/30/26 | MIA | UNDER | 4.5 | ALT | +143 | 9.5% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 8 | LOSS | -1.61u | BetRivers |
| 5/24/26 | @MIA | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +105 | 7.3% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 5 | LOSS | -1.42u | Fanatics |
| 7/28/26 | ATL | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -135 | 5.6% | 4.9 | 3–7 | — | VOID | — | DraftKings |