Clay Holmes
avg tier · 4.5K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
6
MAE
1.67
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.24
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.05
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.97
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0004
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
40
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/25/26 | 4.35 | 3 | 1.35 |
| 9/18/26 | 4.94 | 4 | 0.94 |
| 9/12/26 | 4.92 | 6 | 1.08 |
| 9/6/26 | 5.44 | 2 | 3.44 |
| 8/31/26 | 4.94 | 8 | 3.06 |
| 8/25/26 | 4.83 | 5 | 0.17 |