Colin Rea
avg tier · 4.2K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
13
MAE
1.23
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.33
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.46
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.78
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.04
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/2/26 | 5.25 | 7 | 1.75 |
| 7/28/26 | 4.06 | 2 | 2.06 |
| 7/22/26 | 4.56 | 5 | 0.44 |
| 7/17/26 | 3.92 | 6 | 2.08 |
| 7/8/26 | 4.59 | 2 | 2.59 |
| 7/1/26 | 4.37 | 5 | 0.63 |
| 6/26/26 | 4.34 | 4 | 0.34 |
| 6/20/26 | 3.72 | 3 | 0.72 |
| 6/14/26 | 3.33 | 2 | 1.33 |
| 6/9/26 | 4.20 | 2 | 2.20 |
| 6/3/26 | 3.89 | 3 | 0.89 |
| 5/28/26 | 4.10 | 5 | 0.90 |
| 5/23/26 | 4.01 | 4 | 0.01 |