Connelly Early
elite tier · 5.5K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
8
MAE
1.73
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.77
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.18
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.18
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0006
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
17
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6/30/26 | 5.36 | 5 | 0.36 |
| 6/25/26 | 4.93 | 9 | 4.07 |
| 6/20/26 | 5.37 | 7 | 1.63 |
| 6/14/26 | 6.47 | 3 | 3.47 |
| 6/8/26 | 4.65 | 6 | 1.35 |
| 6/2/26 | 5.07 | 6 | 0.93 |
| 5/27/26 | 5.01 | 7 | 1.99 |
| 5/20/26 | 5.02 | 5 | 0.02 |