Bets
2
0W · 2L
Win Rate
0.0%
0/2
ROI
-100.00%
profit / wager
P&L
-4.47u
1× Kelly · settled
MAE
1.06
Ks · n=2
Bias
-1.06
under-predicting
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0005 · 12 starts
Recent form · Last 2 starts
Record
0W-2L
Win Rate
0%
MAE
1.06
P&L
-4.47u
UNDER2 bets
Record
0W-2L
Win Rate
0%
P&L
-4.47u
OVER0 bets
Record
—
Win Rate
—
P&L
—
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=4.9, α=0.001) · 80% range 3-7 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 23% · green = OVER 5.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
2 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher — directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/8/26 | @TB | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -128 | 9.0% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 6 | LOSS | -2.06u | FanDuel |
| 6/2/26 | BAL | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +110 | 12.6% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 6 | LOSS | -2.41u | BetMGM |