Connor Prielipp
good tier · 5.3K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
15
MAE
2.02
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.34
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.39
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.32
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.45
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0007
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
10
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/23/26 | 5.32 | 3 | 2.32 |
| 9/18/26 | 5.02 | 8 | 2.98 |
| 9/12/26 | 4.76 | 1 | 3.76 |
| 8/26/26 | 5.31 | 5 | 0.31 |
| 8/9/26 | 4.79 | 7 | 2.21 |
| 8/1/26 | 5.75 | 5 | 0.75 |
| 7/26/26 | 4.22 | 5 | 0.78 |
| 7/8/26 | 5.26 | 6 | 0.74 |
| 6/28/26 | 5.63 | 10 | 4.37 |
| 6/19/26 | 3.39 | 4 | 0.61 |
| 6/13/26 | 4.34 | 2 | 2.34 |
| 6/7/26 | 3.92 | 7 | 3.08 |
| 6/2/26 | 4.56 | 7 | 2.44 |
| 5/27/26 | 4.54 | 5 | 0.46 |
| 5/22/26 | 4.15 | 1 | 3.15 |