Cristian Javier
scrub tier · 3.5K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
8
MAE
2.14
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.38
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.36
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.36
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0601
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0842
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
49
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/22/26 | 3.95 | 2 | 1.95 |
| 9/16/26 | 3.87 | 2 | 1.87 |
| 9/10/26 | 3.07 | 5 | 1.93 |
| 9/4/26 | 3.77 | 8 | 4.23 |
| 8/18/26 | 3.81 | 2 | 1.81 |
| 8/9/26 | 3.21 | 0 | 3.21 |
| 8/3/26 | 3.22 | 2 | 1.22 |
| 7/12/26 | 3.13 | 4 | 0.87 |