Bets
7
6W · 1L
Win Rate
85.7%
6/7
ROI
+88.92%
profit / wager
P&L
+15.46u
1× Kelly · settled
MAE
2.60
Ks · n=7
Bias
-2.60
under-predicting
Volatility
—
not in NB α file yet
Recent form · Last 2 starts
Record
6W-1L
Win Rate
86%
MAE
2.69
P&L
+15.46u
UNDER3 bets
Record
2W-1L
Win Rate
67%
P&L
+3.61u
OVER4 bets
Record
4W-0L
Win Rate
100%
P&L
+11.86u
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
2 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher — directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/8/26 | @TOR | OVER | 6.5 | MAIN | +110 | 6.9% | 6.9 | 4–10 | 10 | WIN | +1.45u | Bovada |
| 6/8/26 | @TOR | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +212 | 7.1% | 6.9 | 4–10 | 10 | WIN | +2.22u | DraftKings |
| 6/8/26 | @TOR | OVER | 8.5 | ALT | +421 | 6.7% | 6.9 | 4–10 | 10 | WIN | +3.49u | DraftKings |
| 6/8/26 | @TOR | OVER | 9.5 | ALT | +830 | 5.1% | 6.9 | 4–10 | 10 | WIN | +4.69u | DraftKings |
| 5/22/26 | @CLE | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -150 | 22.1% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +3.33u | BetMGM |
| 5/22/26 | @CLE | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +113 | 22.2% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +4.72u | DraftKings |
| 6/8/26 | @TOR | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -115 | 20.7% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 10 | LOSS | -4.45u | FanDuel |