Look up a pitcher
Bets
22
15W · 7L
Win Rate
68.2%
47.7% break-even (+110)
ROI
+38.42%
profit / wager
P&L
+19.50u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.94
Ks · n=14 predictions
Bias
-0.39
neutral
Volatility
—
not in NB α file yet
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
3W-4L
Win Rate
43%▼ 29pp
-106 avg
MAE
1.37▼ 0.91
P&L
-1.41u▼ 5.39u
UNDER17 bets
Record
10W-7L
Win Rate
59%
-107 avg
P&L
+6.54u
OVER5 bets
Record
5W-0L
Win Rate
100%
+190 avg
P&L
+12.96u
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
12 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/6/26 | WAS | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -130 | 12.6% | 6.4 | 4–9 | 6 | WIN | +2.23u | Fanatics |
| 7/26/26 | NYY | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +130 | 9.6% | 6.5 | 4–9 | 6 | WIN | +2.21u | BetMGM |
| 7/26/26 | NYY | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -115 | 14.6% | 6.5 | 4–9 | 6 | WIN | +2.73u | Fanatics |
| 7/6/26 | @KC | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +100 | 13.9% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 1 | WIN | +2.79u | DraftKings |
| 6/25/26 | @WAS | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -123 | 9.7% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +1.77u | BetOnline.ag |
| 6/20/26 | NYM | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -139 | 8.2% | 6.6 | 4–9 | 5 | WIN | +1.42u | DraftKings |
| 6/20/26 | NYM | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +130 | 7.6% | 6.6 | 4–9 | 5 | WIN | +1.74u | BetMGM |
| 6/14/26 | @MIL | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -150 | 6.3% | 6.6 | 4–9 | 3 | WIN | +1.06u | Bovada |
| 6/8/26 | @TOR | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | -170 | 6.9% | 6.9 | 4–10 | 10 | WIN | +1.10u | Fanatics |
| 6/8/26 | @TOR | OVER | 6.5 | MAIN | +110 | 6.9% | 6.9 | 4–10 | 10 | WIN | +1.45u | Bovada |
| 6/8/26 | @TOR | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +212 | 7.1% | 6.9 | 4–10 | 10 | WIN | +2.22u | DraftKings |
| 6/8/26 | @TOR | OVER | 8.5 | ALT | +421 | 6.7% | 6.9 | 4–10 | 10 | WIN | +3.49u | DraftKings |
| 6/8/26 | @TOR | OVER | 9.5 | ALT | +830 | 5.1% | 6.9 | 4–10 | 10 | WIN | +4.69u | DraftKings |
| 5/22/26 | @CLE | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -150 | 22.1% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +3.69u | BetMGM |
| 5/22/26 | @CLE | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +113 | 22.2% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +4.72u | DraftKings |
| 8/1/26 | @BAL | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -143 | 8.0% | 6.5 | 4–9 | 11 | LOSS | -1.94u | BetRivers |
| 8/1/26 | @BAL | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +120 | 6.3% | 6.5 | 4–9 | 11 | LOSS | -1.15u | BetMGM |
| 7/20/26 | LAD | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -135 | 16.3% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 7 | LOSS | -3.82u | BetMGM |
| 7/11/26 | @DET | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +119 | 9.0% | 6.4 | 4–9 | 7 | LOSS | -1.65u | DraftKings |
| 6/30/26 | PIT | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | +107 | 18.3% | 6.6 | 4–9 | 9 | LOSS | -3.54u | DraftKings |
| 6/25/26 | @WAS | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +145 | 7.4% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 6 | LOSS | -1.25u | BetMGM |
| 6/8/26 | @TOR | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -115 | 20.7% | 5.2 | 3–7 | 10 | LOSS | -4.45u | FanDuel |