David Peterson
good tier · 5.0K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
15
MAE
1.47
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.10
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.69
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.48
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.38
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0099
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0135
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/25/26 | 4.27 | 6 | 1.73 |
| 9/20/26 | 5.44 | 7 | 1.56 |
| 9/14/26 | 4.93 | 7 | 2.07 |
| 9/8/26 | 4.96 | 4 | 0.96 |
| 9/2/26 | 5.08 | 4 | 1.08 |
| 8/28/26 | 5.68 | 6 | 0.32 |
| 8/12/26 | 5.12 | 6 | 0.88 |
| 8/6/26 | 4.93 | 3 | 1.93 |
| 8/1/26 | 5.00 | 8 | 3.00 |
| 7/27/26 | 3.76 | 3 | 0.76 |
| 7/21/26 | 4.62 | 4 | 0.62 |
| 7/9/26 | 5.33 | 2 | 3.33 |
| 6/21/26 | 4.30 | 5 | 0.70 |
| 5/26/26 | 5.52 | 4 | 1.52 |
| 5/21/26 | 4.58 | 3 | 1.58 |