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Bets
19
3W · 16L
Win Rate
15.8%
36.2% break-even (+177)
ROI
-63.55%
profit / wager
P&L
-33.23u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.68
Ks · n=8 predictions
Bias
+0.76
over-predicting
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0099 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
3W-14L
Win Rate
18%▲ 18pp
+173 avg
MAE
1.93
P&L
-31.06u▼ 28.88u
UNDER1 bet
Record
0W-1L
Win Rate
0%
+114 avg
P&L
-1.31u
OVER18 bets
Record
3W-15L
Win Rate
17%
+181 avg
P&L
-31.92u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=5.0, α=0.010) · 80% range 3-7 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 24% · green = OVER 3.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
6 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/6/26 | TOR | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -285 | 14.3% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 3 | WIN | +1.94u | Fanatics |
| 7/27/26 | @STL | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -200 | 20.5% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 3 | WIN | +3.07u | BetMGM |
| 7/21/26 | DET | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -165 | 5.6% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 4 | WIN | +0.90u | BetMGM |
| 8/6/26 | TOR | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -113 | 21.6% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -4.61u | FanDuel |
| 8/6/26 | TOR | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +215 | 25.5% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -3.73u | Bovada |
| 8/6/26 | TOR | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +475 | 22.2% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -2.68u | Bovada |
| 8/6/26 | TOR | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +900 | 14.8% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.64u | DraftKings |
| 7/27/26 | @STL | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | +125 | 28.1% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -5.07u | BetMGM |
| 7/27/26 | @STL | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +285 | 28.6% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -3.87u | FanDuel |
| 7/27/26 | @STL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +630 | 23.3% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -2.69u | FanDuel |
| 7/27/26 | @STL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +1400 | 15.9% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.71u | Caesars |
| 7/21/26 | DET | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +285 | 5.6% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 4 | LOSS | -0.76u | FanDuel |
| 7/9/26 | @BAL | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -165 | 10.3% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 2 | LOSS | -2.73u | Fanatics |
| 7/9/26 | @BAL | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +130 | 11.1% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 2 | LOSS | -1.96u | Fanatics |
| 7/9/26 | @BAL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +290 | 18.4% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 2 | LOSS | -2.48u | FanDuel |
| 7/9/26 | @BAL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +630 | 14.9% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 2 | LOSS | -1.73u | FanDuel |
| 6/21/26 | @PHI | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +114 | 7.0% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 5 | LOSS | -1.31u | DraftKings |
| 5/26/26 | CIN | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +154 | 7.5% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -1.24u | FanDuel |
| 5/26/26 | CIN | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +320 | 7.1% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -0.93u | FanDuel |