Davis Martin
scrub tier · 3.9K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
18
MAE
2.69
Ks off, on average
Bias
+2.41
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.97
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.93
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
2.16
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
49
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/20/26 | 3.62 | 2 | 1.62 |
| 9/15/26 | 4.23 | 0 | 4.23 |
| 9/9/26 | 3.79 | 1 | 2.79 |
| 9/2/26 | 3.38 | 0 | 3.38 |
| 8/9/26 | 3.64 | 1 | 2.64 |
| 8/4/26 | 4.64 | 1 | 3.64 |
| 7/29/26 | 4.86 | 6 | 1.14 |
| 7/24/26 | 4.81 | 3 | 1.81 |
| 7/18/26 | 3.64 | 5 | 1.36 |
| 7/8/26 | 4.85 | 2 | 2.85 |
| 7/2/26 | 5.60 | 0 | 5.60 |
| 6/27/26 | 5.06 | 3 | 2.06 |
| 6/21/26 | 7.34 | 5 | 2.34 |
| 6/16/26 | 5.83 | 4 | 1.83 |
| 6/10/26 | 4.73 | 2 | 2.73 |
| 6/2/26 | 5.47 | 2 | 3.47 |
| 5/28/26 | 5.40 | 5 | 0.40 |
| 5/22/26 | 5.48 | 1 | 4.48 |