Dean Kremer
good tier · 5.0K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
10
MAE
1.13
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.05
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.53
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.46
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
0.80
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/20/26 | 4.88 | 8 | 3.12 |
| 9/14/26 | 4.89 | 5 | 0.11 |
| 9/8/26 | 4.92 | 3 | 1.92 |
| 9/2/26 | 5.05 | 5 | 0.05 |
| 8/28/26 | 5.08 | 3 | 2.08 |
| 8/10/26 | 5.02 | 7 | 1.98 |
| 7/28/26 | 4.86 | 4 | 0.86 |
| 7/22/26 | 5.00 | 5 | 0.00 |
| 7/17/26 | 4.83 | 5 | 0.17 |
| 7/8/26 | 4.98 | 4 | 0.98 |