Drew Rasmussen
good tier · 5.2K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
20
MAE
2.69
Ks off, on average
Bias
-1.42
predicted − actual
RMSE
3.51
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.32
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
2.93
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0136
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0187
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/22/26 | 5.60 | 11 | 5.40 |
| 9/17/26 | 5.34 | 3 | 2.34 |
| 9/11/26 | 5.28 | 4 | 1.28 |
| 9/5/26 | 5.22 | 7 | 1.78 |
| 8/30/26 | 5.20 | 6 | 0.80 |
| 8/24/26 | 4.96 | 5 | 0.04 |
| 8/12/26 | 4.94 | 3 | 1.94 |
| 8/7/26 | 5.15 | 8 | 2.85 |
| 8/1/26 | 5.03 | 10 | 4.97 |
| 7/26/26 | 4.16 | 9 | 4.84 |
| 7/21/26 | 4.22 | 5 | 0.78 |
| 7/9/26 | 5.41 | 2 | 3.41 |
| 7/4/26 | 5.32 | 2 | 3.32 |
| 6/28/26 | 4.51 | 5 | 0.49 |
| 6/22/26 | 4.55 | 5 | 0.45 |
| 6/16/26 | 3.86 | 7 | 3.14 |
| 6/10/26 | 3.69 | 13 | 9.31 |
| 6/5/26 | 4.20 | 9 | 4.80 |
| 5/30/26 | 4.47 | 4 | 0.47 |
| 5/24/26 | 4.51 | 6 | 1.49 |