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Bets
15
6W · 8L
Win Rate
42.9%
53.4% break-even (-114)
ROI
-4.33%
profit / wager
P&L
-1.93u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
3.12
Ks · n=12 predictions
Bias
-1.92
under-predicting
Volatility
Moderate spread
α=0.0136 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
1W-5L
Win Rate
17%▼ 33pp
-120 avg
MAE
3.46▼ 0.17
P&L
-12.39u▼ 15.34u
UNDER15 bets
Record
6W-8L
Win Rate
43%
-114 avg
P&L
-1.93u
OVER0 bets
Record
—
Win Rate
—
P&L
—
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=4.7, α=0.014) · 80% range 2-7 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 19% · green = OVER 5.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
10 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/9/26 | NYY | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -146 | 11.4% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 2 | WIN | +1.92u | DraftKings |
| 7/4/26 | @HOU | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +118 | 10.9% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 2 | WIN | +2.37u | DraftKings |
| 6/28/26 | ARI | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -113 | 17.3% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 5 | WIN | +3.25u | DraftKings |
| 6/22/26 | KC | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +120 | 23.9% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 5 | WIN | +5.25u | BetRivers |
| 5/30/26 | LAA | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +114 | 24.3% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 4 | WIN | +5.21u | DraftKings |
| 5/30/26 | LAA | UNDER | 6.5 | ALT | -215 | 15.7% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 4 | WIN | +2.30u | BetRivers |
| 8/1/26 | CWS | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +115 | 14.8% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 10 | LOSS | -2.76u | Fanatics |
| 8/1/26 | CWS | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -160 | 14.3% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 10 | LOSS | -3.72u | DraftKings |
| 7/26/26 | CLE | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +115 | 13.6% | 4.2 | 2–6 | 9 | LOSS | -2.53u | BetMGM |
| 7/26/26 | CLE | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -157 | 15.1% | 4.2 | 2–6 | 9 | LOSS | -3.87u | BetRivers |
| 7/21/26 | @TOR | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -108 | 6.9% | 4.2 | 2–6 | 5 | LOSS | -1.43u | FanDuel |
| 6/16/26 | @LAD | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -120 | 13.5% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 7 | LOSS | -2.96u | DraftKings |
| 6/10/26 | BOS | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +125 | 11.3% | 4.3 | 2–7 | 13 | LOSS | -2.04u | Fanatics |
| 6/10/26 | BOS | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -162 | 11.2% | 4.3 | 2–7 | 13 | LOSS | -2.93u | FanDuel |
| 8/7/26 | @SEA | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +107 | 10.9% | 5.2 | 3–8 | — | — | — | DraftKings |