Dustin May
good tier · 4.7K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
19
MAE
2.29
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.17
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.70
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.07
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
2.19
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
46
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/22/26 | 3.93 | 2 | 1.93 |
| 9/18/26 | 4.62 | 4 | 0.62 |
| 9/11/26 | 4.29 | 6 | 1.71 |
| 9/5/26 | 4.23 | 5 | 0.77 |
| 8/30/26 | 3.66 | 4 | 0.34 |
| 8/26/26 | 5.05 | 1 | 4.05 |
| 8/12/26 | 4.78 | 6 | 1.22 |
| 7/29/26 | 5.25 | 3 | 2.25 |
| 7/24/26 | 5.64 | 8 | 2.36 |
| 7/18/26 | 4.91 | 6 | 1.09 |
| 7/12/26 | 4.45 | 4 | 0.45 |
| 7/6/26 | 4.46 | 7 | 2.54 |
| 7/2/26 | 5.15 | 1 | 4.15 |
| 6/21/26 | 5.20 | 2 | 3.20 |
| 6/15/26 | 4.56 | 1 | 3.56 |
| 6/9/26 | 4.96 | 6 | 1.04 |
| 6/2/26 | 4.38 | 9 | 4.62 |
| 5/27/26 | 4.01 | 9 | 4.99 |
| 5/21/26 | 4.33 | 7 | 2.67 |