Dylan Cease
elite tier · 7.4K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
17
MAE
2.17
Ks off, on average
Bias
-1.20
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.75
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.06
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.68
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/18/26 | 6.98 | 3 | 3.98 |
| 9/13/26 | 7.66 | 9 | 1.34 |
| 9/7/26 | 7.01 | 6 | 1.01 |
| 9/2/26 | 7.10 | 4 | 3.10 |
| 8/28/26 | 7.12 | 8 | 0.88 |
| 8/11/26 | 7.13 | 7 | 0.13 |
| 8/6/26 | 7.44 | 10 | 2.56 |
| 7/31/26 | 6.65 | 7 | 0.35 |
| 7/25/26 | 6.76 | 12 | 5.24 |
| 7/20/26 | 6.89 | 7 | 0.11 |
| 7/8/26 | 6.30 | 11 | 4.70 |
| 7/3/26 | 6.89 | 9 | 2.11 |
| 6/27/26 | 6.20 | 10 | 3.80 |
| 6/22/26 | 5.47 | 8 | 2.53 |
| 6/16/26 | 6.43 | 7 | 0.57 |
| 6/9/26 | 6.81 | 11 | 4.19 |
| 5/24/26 | 7.70 | 8 | 0.30 |