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Bets
16
2W · 12L
Win Rate
14.3%
48.4% break-even (+107)
ROI
-84.76%
profit / wager
P&L
-29.78u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
2.41
Ks · n=11 predictions
Bias
-2.41
under-predicting
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0003 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
2W-3L
Win Rate
40%▲ 40pp
-115 avg
MAE
2.59▼ 0.05
P&L
-3.64u▲ 21.57u
UNDER14 bets
Record
2W-10L
Win Rate
17%
-105 avg
P&L
-28.13u
OVER2 bets
Record
0W-2L
Win Rate
0%
+210 avg
P&L
-1.65u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=6.7, α=0.000) · 80% range 4-9 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 23% · green = OVER 7.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
10 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/31/26 | STL | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | +111 | 7.7% | 7.3 | 5–10 | 7 | WIN | +1.63u | DraftKings |
| 7/20/26 | TB | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -128 | 5.6% | 6.9 | 4–10 | 7 | WIN | +0.99u | DraftKings |
| 8/6/26 | @CHC | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -105 | 5.9% | 7.2 | 4–10 | 10 | LOSS | -1.20u | BetMGM |
| 7/25/26 | @BOS | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -110 | 11.3% | 6.8 | 4–9 | 12 | LOSS | -2.38u | Bovada |
| 7/8/26 | @SF | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -149 | 10.8% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 11 | LOSS | -2.68u | DraftKings |
| 7/3/26 | @SEA | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | +125 | 17.3% | 6.9 | 4–10 | 9 | LOSS | -3.10u | BetMGM |
| 7/3/26 | @SEA | UNDER | 8.5 | MAIN | -143 | 15.9% | 6.9 | 4–10 | 9 | LOSS | -3.87u | BetRivers |
| 6/27/26 | TEX | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | +119 | 26.4% | 6.2 | 4–9 | 10 | LOSS | -4.85u | DraftKings |
| 6/27/26 | TEX | UNDER | 8.5 | MAIN | -165 | 19.1% | 6.4 | 4–9 | 10 | LOSS | -5.06u | BetMGM |
| 6/22/26 | HOU | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +125 | 25.0% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 8 | LOSS | -4.50u | BetOnline.ag |
| 6/22/26 | HOU | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -155 | 8.6% | 6.4 | 4–9 | 8 | LOSS | -2.18u | BetMGM |
| 6/16/26 | @BOS | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +154 | 5.4% | 7.3 | 5–10 | 7 | LOSS | -0.89u | DraftKings |
| 6/16/26 | @BOS | OVER | 8.5 | ALT | +297 | 5.7% | 7.3 | 5–10 | 7 | LOSS | -0.76u | DraftKings |
| 5/24/26 | PIT | UNDER | 6.5 | ALT | +235 | 6.4% | 7.7 | 5–11 | 8 | LOSS | -0.91u | BetRivers |
| 6/21/26 | @CHC | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +120 | 9.3% | 6.3 | 4–9 | — | VOID | — | DraftKings |
| 6/21/26 | @CHC | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -175 | 6.1% | 6.3 | 4–9 | — | VOID | — | BetMGM |