Emerson Hancock
avg tier · 4.5K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
13
MAE
1.41
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.06
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.53
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.27
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.57
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0658
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0946
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
45
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/9/26 | 3.71 | 3 | 0.71 |
| 8/4/26 | 4.53 | 6 | 1.47 |
| 7/29/26 | 4.26 | 5 | 0.74 |
| 7/22/26 | 4.01 | 3 | 1.01 |
| 7/12/26 | 4.42 | 2 | 2.42 |
| 7/5/26 | 3.60 | 5 | 1.40 |
| 6/28/26 | 4.85 | 6 | 1.15 |
| 6/20/26 | 4.46 | 6 | 1.54 |
| 6/14/26 | 3.48 | 2 | 1.48 |
| 6/8/26 | 5.27 | 3 | 2.27 |
| 6/1/26 | 4.56 | 7 | 2.44 |
| 5/26/26 | 4.13 | 3 | 1.13 |
| 5/20/26 | 4.54 | 4 | 0.54 |