Bets
3
1W · 2L
Win Rate
33.3%
1/3
ROI
+47.42%
profit / wager
P&L
+2.08u
1× Kelly · settled
MAE
1.87
Ks · n=3
Bias
+1.87
over-predicting
Volatility
High spread
α=0.0752 · 40 starts
Recent form · Last 1 start
Record
1W-2L
Win Rate
33%
MAE
1.06
P&L
+2.08u
UNDER1 bet
Record
1W-0L
Win Rate
100%
P&L
+3.49u
OVER2 bets
Record
0W-2L
Win Rate
0%
P&L
-1.42u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=4.9, α=0.075) · 80% range 2-7 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 24% · green = OVER 4.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
1 start · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher — directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/8/26 | @BAL | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +118 | 16.0% | 4.1 | 2–6 | 3 | WIN | +3.49u | FanDuel |
| 6/8/26 | @BAL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +325 | 5.6% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -0.73u | Bovada |
| 6/8/26 | @BAL | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +675 | 6.0% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -0.68u | Bovada |