Emmet Sheehan
elite tier · 5.5K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
12
MAE
1.50
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.30
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.92
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
0.93
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.66
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0154
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0239
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
34
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/13/26 | 5.35 | 5 | 0.35 |
| 8/2/26 | 5.32 | 4 | 1.32 |
| 7/26/26 | 5.17 | 5 | 0.17 |
| 7/20/26 | 5.41 | 6 | 0.59 |
| 7/12/26 | 4.79 | 7 | 2.21 |
| 7/5/26 | 5.45 | 5 | 0.45 |
| 6/28/26 | 5.03 | 5 | 0.03 |
| 6/21/26 | 5.72 | 4 | 1.72 |
| 6/14/26 | 5.96 | 8 | 2.04 |
| 6/7/26 | 6.08 | 2 | 4.08 |
| 6/1/26 | 5.72 | 3 | 2.72 |
| 5/25/26 | 5.63 | 8 | 2.37 |