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Bets
12
9W · 2L
Win Rate
81.8%
44.4% break-even (+125)
ROI
+96.65%
profit / wager
P&L
+15.76u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.61
Ks · n=11 predictions
Bias
+0.30
neutral
Volatility
Moderate spread
α=0.0154 · 34 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
3W-1L
Win Rate
75%▼ 11pp
+107 avg
MAE
0.95▼ 1.17
P&L
+3.47u▼ 8.81u
UNDER7 bets
Record
5W-1L
Win Rate
83%
+103 avg
P&L
+7.81u
OVER5 bets
Record
4W-1L
Win Rate
80%
+158 avg
P&L
+7.95u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=5.7, α=0.015) · 80% range 3-8 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 22% · green = OVER 5.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
8 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/2/26 | BOS | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +114 | 5.7% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 4 | WIN | +1.23u | DraftKings |
| 7/26/26 | @NYM | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +118 | 13.0% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +2.83u | DraftKings |
| 6/28/26 | @SD | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -106 | 5.4% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +1.05u | DraftKings |
| 6/21/26 | BAL | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -104 | 14.1% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 4 | WIN | +2.77u | DraftKings |
| 6/14/26 | @CWS | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +223 | 7.9% | 6.0 | 3–9 | 8 | WIN | +2.56u | DraftKings |
| 6/14/26 | @CWS | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -199 | 5.0% | 6.0 | 3–9 | 8 | WIN | +0.75u | DraftKings |
| 6/14/26 | @CWS | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +107 | 6.9% | 6.0 | 3–9 | 8 | WIN | +1.43u | DraftKings |
| 6/14/26 | @CWS | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +457 | 7.0% | 6.0 | 3–9 | 8 | WIN | +3.92u | DraftKings |
| 6/7/26 | LAA | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -105 | 8.0% | 6.1 | 3–9 | 2 | WIN | +1.56u | BetMGM |
| 7/20/26 | @PHI | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +105 | 8.4% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 6 | LOSS | -1.63u | BetMGM |
| 6/1/26 | @ARI | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +235 | 5.1% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -0.72u | BetRivers |
| 7/18/26 | @NYY | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -102 | 5.8% | 5.3 | 3–8 | — | VOID | — | FanDuel |