Eric Lauer
scrub tier · 3.8K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
12
MAE
1.56
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.26
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.72
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.73
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.27
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0004
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
34
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/1/26 | 3.56 | 2 | 1.56 |
| 8/18/26 | 3.96 | 6 | 2.04 |
| 8/12/26 | 3.73 | 6 | 2.27 |
| 8/5/26 | 3.71 | 1 | 2.71 |
| 7/29/26 | 3.91 | 4 | 0.09 |
| 7/22/26 | 3.61 | 5 | 1.39 |
| 7/6/26 | 3.93 | 3 | 0.93 |
| 6/29/26 | 3.67 | 2 | 1.67 |
| 6/22/26 | 3.78 | 2 | 1.78 |
| 6/15/26 | 3.44 | 4 | 0.56 |
| 6/9/26 | 3.54 | 5 | 1.46 |
| 6/2/26 | 3.32 | 1 | 2.32 |