Erick Fedde
scrub tier · 3.7K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
14
MAE
1.29
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.28
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.60
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.98
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.25
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0296
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0410
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/17/26 | 3.49 | 6 | 2.51 |
| 9/4/26 | 3.59 | 2 | 1.59 |
| 8/29/26 | 2.56 | 4 | 1.44 |
| 7/31/26 | 3.22 | 6 | 2.78 |
| 7/26/26 | 3.58 | 2 | 1.58 |
| 7/20/26 | 2.84 | 6 | 3.16 |
| 7/11/26 | 3.45 | 3 | 0.45 |
| 7/5/26 | 3.59 | 4 | 0.41 |
| 6/30/26 | 3.39 | 3 | 0.39 |
| 6/24/26 | 3.84 | 2 | 1.84 |
| 6/19/26 | 3.37 | 4 | 0.63 |
| 6/3/26 | 2.34 | 2 | 0.34 |
| 5/29/26 | 3.39 | 3 | 0.39 |
| 5/23/26 | 3.50 | 3 | 0.50 |