Foster Griffin
good tier · 5.1K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
19
MAE
2.13
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.11
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.45
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.43
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.85
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0006
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
15
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/23/26 | 4.51 | 7 | 2.49 |
| 9/15/26 | 4.64 | 7 | 2.36 |
| 9/9/26 | 5.12 | 1 | 4.12 |
| 9/4/26 | 5.13 | 3 | 2.13 |
| 8/29/26 | 5.07 | 4 | 1.07 |
| 8/18/26 | 6.09 | 6 | 0.09 |
| 8/12/26 | 5.20 | 3 | 2.20 |
| 7/31/26 | 5.26 | 3 | 2.26 |
| 7/25/26 | 4.22 | 2 | 2.22 |
| 7/19/26 | 4.49 | 2 | 2.49 |
| 7/8/26 | 5.24 | 9 | 3.76 |
| 7/3/26 | 5.59 | 2 | 3.59 |
| 6/27/26 | 5.88 | 9 | 3.12 |
| 6/22/26 | 5.05 | 9 | 3.95 |
| 6/16/26 | 4.20 | 6 | 1.80 |
| 6/10/26 | 4.67 | 5 | 0.33 |
| 6/5/26 | 5.08 | 4 | 1.08 |
| 5/30/26 | 4.80 | 5 | 0.20 |
| 5/24/26 | 4.86 | 6 | 1.14 |