Freddy Peralta
elite tier · 5.5K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
19
MAE
1.82
Ks off, on average
Bias
+1.08
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.26
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.01
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.60
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/25/26 | 5.27 | 4 | 1.27 |
| 9/19/26 | 5.15 | 6 | 0.85 |
| 9/13/26 | 4.92 | 2 | 2.92 |
| 9/8/26 | 5.40 | 2 | 3.40 |
| 9/1/26 | 5.41 | 7 | 1.59 |
| 8/26/26 | 5.11 | 4 | 1.11 |
| 8/10/26 | 5.31 | 5 | 0.31 |
| 7/26/26 | 4.78 | 3 | 1.78 |
| 7/20/26 | 5.21 | 1 | 4.21 |
| 7/11/26 | 5.39 | 6 | 0.61 |
| 7/6/26 | 5.09 | 6 | 0.91 |
| 7/1/26 | 4.84 | 4 | 0.84 |
| 6/25/26 | 5.62 | 5 | 0.62 |
| 6/20/26 | 6.05 | 2 | 4.05 |
| 6/14/26 | 6.19 | 2 | 4.19 |
| 6/9/26 | 6.59 | 5 | 1.59 |
| 6/3/26 | 6.23 | 6 | 0.23 |
| 5/29/26 | 6.00 | 5 | 1.00 |
| 5/23/26 | 5.87 | 9 | 3.13 |