Look up a pitcher
Bets
6
6W · 0L
Win Rate
100.0%
34.9% break-even (+187)
ROI
+296.36%
profit / wager
P&L
+49.08u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
2.25
Ks · n=2 predictions
Bias
-0.26
neutral
Volatility
—
not in NB α file yet
Recent form · Last 2 starts
Record
6W-0L
Win Rate
100%
+187 avg
MAE
2.25
P&L
+49.08u
UNDER1 bet
Record
1W-0L
Win Rate
100%
-123 avg
P&L
+1.45u
OVER5 bets
Record
5W-0L
Win Rate
100%
+224 avg
P&L
+47.63u
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
2 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/4/26 | TB | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -203 | 16.3% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 7 | WIN | +2.43u | DraftKings |
| 8/4/26 | TB | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | +127 | 22.1% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 7 | WIN | +5.01u | DraftKings |
| 8/4/26 | TB | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +301 | 21.6% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 7 | WIN | +8.68u | DraftKings |
| 8/4/26 | TB | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +700 | 16.6% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 7 | WIN | +13.28u | DraftKings |
| 8/4/26 | TB | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +1640 | 10.5% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 7 | WIN | +18.22u | DraftKings |
| 7/29/26 | @SD | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -123 | 8.0% | 4.0 | 2–6 | 2 | WIN | +1.45u | BetOnline.ag |